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Adams, F K (2004) The management of risks in international infrastructural projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Business Studies, University of Edinburgh.

Ahiaga-Dagbui, D D (2014) Rethinking construction cost overruns: an artificial neural network approach to construction cost estimation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

• Type: Thesis
• Keywords: cost; overruns; artificial neural network; estimating
• ISBN/ISSN:
• URL: https://era.ed.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/1842/10454/Ahiaga-Dagbui2014.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
• Abstract:
  The main concern of a construction client is to procure a facility that is able to meet its functional requirements, of the required quality, and delivered within an acceptable budget and timeframe. The cost aspect of these key performance indicators usually ranks highest. In spite of the importance of cost estimation, it is undeniably neither simple nor straightforward because of the lack of information in the early stages of the project. Construction projects therefore have routinely overrun their estimates. Cost overrun has been attributed to a number of sources including technical error in design, managerial incompetence, risk and uncertainty, suspicions of foul play and even corruption. Furthermore, even though it is accepted that factors such as tendering method, location of project, procurement method or size of project have an effect on likely final cost of a project, it is difficult to establish their measured financial impact. Estimators thus have to rely largely on experience and intuition when preparing initial estimates, often neglecting most of these factors in the final cost build-up. The decision-to-build for most projects is therefore largely based on unrealistic estimates that would inevitably be exceeded. The main aim of this research is to re-examine the sources of cost overrun on construction projects and to develop final cost estimation models that could help in reaching more reliable final cost estimates at the tendering stage of the project. The research identified two predominant schools of thought on the sources of overruns – referred to here as the PsychoStrategists and Evolution Theorists. Another finding was that there is no unanimity on the reference point from which cost performance could be assessed, leading to a large disparity in the size of overruns reported. Another misunderstanding relates to the term “cost overrun” itself. The experimental part of the research, conducted in collaboration with two industry partners, used a combination of non-parametric bootstrapping and ensemble modelling with artificial neural networks to develop final project cost models based on about 1,600 water infrastructure projects. 92% of the validation predictions were within ±10% of the actual final cost of the project. The models will be particularly useful at the pre-contract stage as they will provide a benchmark for evaluating submitted tenders and also allow the quick generation of various alternative solutions for a construction project using what-if scenarios. The original contribution of the study is a fresh thinking of construction “cost overruns”, now proposed to be more appropriately known as “cost growth” based on a synthesises of the two schools of thought into a conceptual model. The second contribution is the development of novel models of construction cost estimation utilising artificial neural networks coupled with bootstrapping and ensemble modelling.

Al-Remal, A M (2013) Risk-based design of structures for fire, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Alsedairy, F S (2019) Dynamics of mega infrastructure decision-making in Saudi Arabia, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Baker, A J (2019) ‘Suitable and sufficient’? UK regulation of post-construction fire safety, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Social & Political Science, University of Edinburgh.

Baker, H (2021) A multimethod approach to learning from text-based construction failure data, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Bartlett, A I (2018) Auto-extinction of engineered timber, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Campbell, J M (2008) Safety hazard and risk identification and management in infrastructure management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Dunlop, P G (2005) Investigation, modelling and planning of stochastic concrete placing operations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Eid, M E M (2004) Rethinking relationships in the construction industry: integrating sustainable development into project management processes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Architecture, University of Edinburgh.

French, T R (2012) Evolutionary optimisation of network flow plans for emergency movement in the built environment, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Furber, A (2013) The social and cultural context of rural water and sanitation projects: case studies from Ghana, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Glendinning, M (1991) 'Give the people homes!': Britain's multi-storey housing drive, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Edinburgh College of Art, University of Edinburgh.

Graham, D (2005) Stochastic modelling and analysis of construction processes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Hashim, R (2018) Green innovation adoption in the construction sector : the role of absorptive capacity and the effect of environmental requirements, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Business School, University of Edinburgh.

Hellowell, M S (2012) Fair return for risk? An examination of structure, competition and profitability in the market for private finance in the National Health Service, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh.

Hsiao, C C (2000) Constructing a sustainable impact assessment methodology : an evaluation of Taiwanese EIA of high-rise building, Unpublished PhD Thesis, College of Art, University of Edinburgh.

Jackson, D J (2020) Addressing the challenges of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the construction industry: a multi-perspective approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Business School, University of Edinburgh.

Jiménez-Moreno, P (2020) Mass customisation for zero energy housing: the potential of Japanese manufacturing practices in the context of sustainable housebuilding in the United Kingdom, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Kanellopoulos, G (2022) External fire spread from timber lined compartments, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Kim, S (1998) Sustainable building practices: minimising the life-cycle environmental impact of high-rise apartments in Korea, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Architecture, University of Edinburgh.

Knebel, V (2006) Preserve and rebuild: the built environment, status transformations and identity construction in eastern Germany after reunification, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Sociology, University of Edinburgh.

Koutsomarkos, V (2023) Developing a fire robustness index for the built environment, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Marquardt, G (2017) Economic analysis of contract choice, feelings of entitlement and contract enforcement in relationships governed by incomplete contracts, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.

McArthur, J (2023) Enrolment, technical mediation, and the obligatory passage point: a socio-technical examination of the Canada Green Building Council, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

McMeel, D (2009) The artistry of construction: an investigation into construction as a creative process and the influence of mobile phones within domestic scale construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Architecture, University of Edinburgh.

Oliver, A K (2020) Perceptions of sustainability and their influence in the design and delivery of Scottish housing, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Oswald, D (2016) Investigating unsafe acts on a large multinational construction project, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

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Ronzani, M (2019) Designing for complexity: Data visualizations in megaproject management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

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Yang, S-A (1995) Kics: Representation of regulatory information and the use of case-based reasoning to support the relaxation process, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.